The new Italian coalition government is business as usual

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BrusselsReport.eu
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New Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni (Copyright; Quirinale.it, Attribution, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=124483141 )

In a comment for Brussels Report, Antonio Picasso, Director general of Italian think tank Competere.eu, takes a closer look at the new Italian government coalition led by Giorgia Meloni.

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“Much ado about nothing.” This Shakespeare reference pretty much sums up what to think of Giorgia Meloni’s government. Those expecting an executive nostalgic for fascism have been forced to change their stance. What’s more: fears of a shift from the left-wing populism of the Conte governments, interupted by Mario Draghi, to right-wing populism have been dispelled as well.

What Italy now has is a government very much in line with the previous one, all in tune with the Italian and EU establishment. This despite expectations among some that those who voted for Meloni’s Fratelli d’Italia, which obtained 26% of the vote, intended to go in precisely the opposite direction.

The government led by Giorgia Meloni should be considered anything but revolutionary. Meloni herself, despite her 45 years – an age considered young in Italian politics – has been elected to Italy’s institutions for about 25 years, 8 in the local ones and 18 in the national parliament. Of the total 26 ministers, 9 already have government experience, in the last government headed by Berlusconi (2010-2011). This includes Meloni and Ignazio La Russa, now President of the Senate, then Minister of Defence: As a result, we can conclude that Italy’s new government is a very political, non-technocratic government, with a solid right-of-centre profile and a clear preference for conservatism, not post-fascism.

The new government is also very much in tune with the establishment, as there is a lot of continuity with the government led by Draghi. This is also evident from the cordiality between the latter and Meloni, during the handover of power. It is even more so as a result of the fact that the the former Minister for Ecological Transition, Roberto Cingolani, a man close to Eni and therefore to big industry, will stay on as advisor. Another establishment figure is Guido Crosetto, now Minister for Defence, but until yesterday President of the Federation of Italian companies for aerospace, defence and security (AIAD) of Confindustria.

Energy policy

When it comes to the energy policy of the new Italian government, one should certainly not hope for a return to nuclear power. On the other hand, Meloni has already declared herself to be in favour of a resumption of research and drilling in the Adriatic Sea. This is certainly a good sign.

Also, the fact that the Ministry of Ecological Transition has been renamed to the Ministry of the Environment and Energy, should make one assume that Meloni wants to do more than Draghi and Cingolani have done.

A realistic approach would involve reviving the Italian economy through an hydrocarbon and renewable energy mix. Those are energy sources that require investment – which is being executed through Italy’s EU-funded recovery and resilience plan (Pnrr) – bureaucratic simplifications and non-ideological choices.

The last two elements are the most difficult to achieve. Italy truly is a country with a strong “NIMBY” sentiment. Moreover, the electorate of Fratelli d’Italia itself is often against central government intervention into regional affairs.

Two options for Meloni

Minister for Defence Crosetto’s dual role as a politician and a business representative is yet another element that should put to rest any doubts about Meloni’s Atlanticism and Europeanism. For the Italian defence industry, the consortia of which it is a member, along with France, Germany and the United States for military supplies to NATO, are far more valuable than opposing sanctions against Putin’s Russia.

However, Giorgia Meloni now has two options. She will need to make a choice quickly, given that there will be important regional elections next year, in Lombardy, and the European Parliament elections in 2024.

A first option is to follow the guide of an unpredictable and unreliable ally like Matteo Salvini, now Minister of Infrastructure, and the leader of Lega Nord, and go along with his populist drifts as well as expansive economic policies on pensions and tax reform. Typically, Salvini is swayed by social media and opinions polls and is able to drag the entire majority establishment with him.

To survive, Meloni might well listen to him. Apart from the political consequences, however, it must be considered that Salvini’s demands on the “Quota 41” pension system (allowing to retire at 62 years of age, with 41 of contributions) would cost 850 million euro per year. This is an expense which the Italian Treasury is unable to afford. Also considering the fact that the country is demographic decline and that average life expectancy is over 85 years, it is easy to see how impactful this would be. The Italian state would need to maintain a generation of elderly people who may well live for another 23 years after having left the labour market.

Another area where Meloni could align with Lega, could be to crack down on irregular migration. The fact that Salvini claims to have a say over Coast Guard operations and that Piantedosi, the Minister of the Interior, intends to ban the arrival of rescue boats, may go in this direction. On the other hand, we are approaching winter, which is a season when refugee flows decrease. In any case, is it a good idea for the leading party in the coalition to acquiesce so much to the wishes of the second, especially at a time when the immigration issue is no longer as much of a priority for Italians as it was in 2018-2019.

The second option for Meloni is to become the firm leader of the coalition. In order to be a feared but not hated leader, as Machiavelli teaches, Meloni should follow the example of her predecessors. In fact, she should be even more assertive. This would involve Meloni implementing new competitiveness measures while ensuring that the investments from the EU-funded recovery and resilience plan (Pnrr) generate virtuous returns for the the economy’s recovery process.

On the other hand, in discontinuity with the Draghi government, it must work on the flanks of Europe, so that it provides itself with a common energy, raw materials and defence policy among the member states and autonomous from the allies. Although NATO is a pattern that cannot be touched. It must be conservative in the most classic sense. Without any suspicion of populism or sovereignism whatsoever.

Meanwhile, Meloni must cooperate with the European Union, on matters like energy policy, raw resources and defese policy, effectively acting as a real conservative, rather than a national populist.

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