A ‘military solution’ for the war in Ukraine is an illusion

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BrusselsReport.eu
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By Professor David Criekemans, who teaches international politics at the University of Antwerp and KU Leuven in Belgium, international security at University College Roosevelt in Middelburg in the Netherlands, and geopolitics at the Geneva Institute of Geopolitical Studies, Switzerland.

After one year of war in Ukraine, a period when Europe finally woke up from its beautiful liberal dream, finding itself instead in a world of harsh geopolitical relations, Kyiv and Moscow seem to believe in a ‘military solution’. However, that is an illusion. A new future must be prepared.

One year ago, Vladimir Putin dramatically miscalculated by invading Ukraine with some 150,000 troops. That event, and its consequences, is still sending shock waves throughout the international system. Who would have thought, one year ago, that Western countries would form a relative unity and respond to this flagrant mockery of the international rule of law and territorial integrity with historic sanctions as well as very far-reaching arms deliveries?

It is largely because of US President Joe Biden that Ukraine still exists today. Nevertheless, the current situation represents an important pivotal moment. There are major differences of opinion among European countries regarding arms supplies. Poland and the Baltic states are advocating far-reaching military support, including tanks and fighter planes. The UK took the flight ahead, mainly to force Germany to move. Past historical traumas explain the far-reaching positions among most Central European countries, while Hungary is trying to pry itself loose and seems to have started its own attempt at mediation through Belarus.

The Western doctrine

Out of the different points of view between Western countries, a de facto doctrine has emerged; we support Kyiv to the level of being able to defend itself, and carry out limited offensive actions towards these areas that were recently conquered.

Crimea is an entirely different story in this regard. Biden has been arguing since early May 2022 that this kind of support should “give Ukraine a better position at the negotiating table”. Both Kyiv and Moscow however believe in a “military solution”, but this will prove to be an illusion. Anyone who listens carefully to US senior military officials realises that they anticipate a new impasse. When this will take place is uncertain. Perhaps during or after the summer, taking into account Western arms deliveries of tanks, for example. After that, there will only be a very limited ‘window of opportunity’ to initiate some form of negotiation.

However, how should that look like? Earlier in January, US CIA director Burns very cautiously tested a ‘land for peace deal’, without success. That helped explain the coordinated Western focus on tank deliveries.

Three priorities for a political solution

The only way out is to follow the political route. For this, first of all, Ukrainian President Zelensky should formulate a vision of a ‘Ukraine for all Ukrainians’, including Russian speakers. Of course, many of them now oppose Putin himself, but to take the wind out of Moscow’s sails and to limit loss of face, it is best to ignore this.

In parallel, another process is also needed. Apparently, some have not fully processed the end of the Cold War. Moscow felt it had no place in the new order, and was not respected. Putin modeled a new national identity that became about opposing the current international order, out of frustration, to now even wanting to destroy it. What went wrong? What lessons can we both learn from this?

Thirdly, it is important to reiterate that the West is not at war with the Russian people, and that a different future is also possible. This message needs to be constantly repeated. It is also our failure to realise the historical reconciliation between East and West. Without a debate on causes, no real dialogue could/can be initiated. And so a ‘spring offensive’ along both sides will be needed before both sides, after further exhaustion, may be forced to reconsider in some form or fashion.

Anyone reading news reports and statements from Russia finds that the country is no longer willing to talk at all. The population is being prepared for a long ‘Second Patriotic War’. Putin is apparently gambling that due to the time factor, Russia’s numerical strength will eventually make it prevail.

Avoiding a long, protracted conflict and geopolitical bloc formation

The reality is sinking in that this could well be a long conflict with an open-ended ending, with Moscow regularly able to ramp up the pressure unilaterally. And once the American primaries for the next presidential elections gear up, who knows what the overall sentiment in the Republican party would become? The time factor could very well play into Moscow’s hand, as long as the public can be convinced this war is needed “for the so-called survival of the Russian nation itself”. However, the reality is that there is no ultimate ‘military solution’ for either side in the war in Ukraine.

Finally, due to tensions with the US, China now seems ready to take the next step in its strategic partnership with Russia. So a deepening of the process at geopolitical bloc formation may be at hand. As a result, everything gets connected to everything. Therefore, some geopolitical pressures must be somehow eased in the Asian and Pacific theatre, as otherwise, Beijing will feel isolated and will soon start making ‘wrong choices’. Another danger is ‘horizontal escalation’ and attempts to ‘strategically overload’ the West – think of Taiwan, Syria. We need to think thoroughly about how to avoid such scenarios. Geopolitics and balance of power thinking can help us in trying to identify those geopolitical routes that can avoid us getting into the quagmire which is currently unfolding.

 

Originally published in Dutch by De Tijd

 

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