By Shahin Gobadi, a member of the Foreign Affairs Committee of the National Council of Resistance of Iran
March 20 marks the end of spring and the eve of the Iranian New Year. Instead of staying home for the New Year feast, many Iranians in Europe have decided to take it to the streets of Brussels, where EU Foreign Ministers are meeting, and demand that they proceed with listing the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) as a terrorist organization, in accordance with a resolution passed by the European Parliament.
In Farsi, the New Year holiday is called Nowruz, which literally means “new day”. That label has perhaps never been as appropriate as it is this year, when Nowruz almost directly coincides with the six-month anniversary of a nationwide uprising. It began in response to a young woman’s killing by “morality police” and then quickly transformed into calls for regime change and the embrace of a democratic alternative to both the current theocracy and the former monarchic system.
The year 1402 on the Iranian calendar could truly be the start of a new day for the entire nation. Despite the clerical regime’s attempts to depict the protests as having already subsided in the wake of Tehran’s violent repression, there have been very recent and very significant upsurges in unrest.
Last Tuesday evening, despite the full alert of repressive forces, the arrest of youths, and constant threats from judicial authorities and the state security forces, people in Tehran and other cities of Iran continued to chant slogans against Khamenei, held large gatherings, and lit fires on the occasion of chahrshanbeh suri, or “bonfire celebration”. Thus, the nationwide fire festival turned into another uprising against the ruling mullahs.
Last month, activists throughout the country held demonstrations to mark the end of a 40-day mourning period for two men who had been executed for their participation in earlier protests. And just this past week, teachers and parents led rallies in various cities to protest the mass poisoning of schoolgirls – a phenomenon that is widely assumed to be punishment for young women leading the public outcry over the September killing of Mahsa Amini.
These latest demonstrations underscore the Iranian people’s refusal to be cowed by the crackdowns that have killed more than 750 people including 70 children. According to the leading pro-democracy opposition group, the People’s Mojahedin Organization (MEK) of Iran, more than 30,000 people have also been arrested for protesting over the past six months, leading to numerous reports of torture and rape in custody, which could also set the stage for lengthy prison sentences and mass executions.
Constant public unrest
This week, Iran’s Chief Justice claimed that 22,000 people detained in the wake of the six-month long uprising have been “pardoned” and released, but in so doing he confirmed the opposition’s information, which are higher than those offered by most media reports on the uprising.
Of course, mass arrests and state violence are very familiar to the Iranian people. When a nationwide uprising broke out in response to sudden gasoline price increases in November 2019, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps responded with mass shootings that killed approximately 1,500 people. In the months that followed, the judiciary, then under the control of Ebrahim Raisi, undertook a campaign of mass torture that was detailed in an Amnesty International report titled “Trampling Humanity”. Raisi then went on to be appointed as the regime’s president, and Amnesty’s Director General Agnes Callamard lamented that this was a “grim reminder that impunity reigns supreme in Iran.”
Public unrest has been nearly constant in the Islamic Republic for the two years that Raisi has been in office, and the present uprising is the culmination of that unrest, as well as the organizing efforts of the MEK’s “Resistance Units”.
A must read by anyone interested in #Iranian affairs: ‘Night doctors’ and other unsung heroes of the protests in #Iran deserve our support. https://t.co/9idBsv1SYo #IranRevoIution
— Shahin Gobadi (@gobadi) January 5, 2023
As attested by video clips posted to social media, protests across the country saw activists clashing with heavily armed security forces while wielding nothing but stones and empty fists. In many cases, the overwhelming scale and geographic breadth of those protests forced the security forces to withdraw, no doubt holding in check what could have been a much bloodier government crackdown.
It is important to note that this is the only reason why the crackdown has not exceeded the death toll of its predecessor in 2019. It is equally important to note that the situation could still grow much worse, especially if international focus on Iran’s domestic situation wavers. The schoolgirl poisonings are one testament to this fact. Many participants in the recent protests have espoused the view that the clerical regime may have been behind these assaults.
Protests over the poisonings have met with tear gas and water cannons, while Iranian officials have responded to the poisonings themselves by alleging a false flag operation aimed at defaming the regime and prolonging social unrest. The Interior Ministry this week announced the arrests of three people who had participated in earlier protests, plus one with supposed links to “hostile” foreign media.
The Iranian regime is not capable of reform
Western media had frequently portrayed the Iranian regime as being capable of internal reform, but those narratives are rejected by growing numbers of Western lawmakers in the light of the recent uprising. This is evident from a resolution that was recently adopted by a bipartisan majority of the US House of Representatives, which affirms support for the Iranian uprising and recognizes it as the only reasonable hope for systemic change in that country.
This sentiment was reinforced at a congressional meeting on March 9 by Maryam Rajavi, the President-elect of the National Council of Resistance of Iran who said: “The increased repression, coupled with the regime’s disastrous economic policies and corruption, has only deepened the divide between the Iranian people and the ruling theocracy.”
As that divide deepens, the prospect of regime change becomes ever more tangible. At the same time, Western policies of engagement with the Iranian regime has become increasingly difficult to justify.
As Western policymakers observe the conditions in the Islamic Republic this Nowruz, perhaps more of them will finally recognize the need for assertive measures that support the Iranian people against their oppressors. Designating the IRGC as a terrorist Organization is the first step toward a foreign policy that serves that aim.
Mullahs’ established modus opernadi: Whenever in deep trouble, deploy “friendly journalists” & those who for ulterior motives recycle regime’s attacks on #MEK, the principal democratic resistance movement in #Iran. A must read by @amsafavi#IranRevolution2023 #No2ShahNo2Mullahs https://t.co/WHpLiqsctU
— Shahin Gobadi (@gobadi) February 25, 2023
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